Strategy & proprietary models.
Top-down proprietary models and fundamental analysis, applied across global markets.
Top-down proprietary models & fundamental analysis.
From the global macro picture down to countries, sectors and securities.
- Fundamental analysisA detailed fundamental macro credit and monetary analysis is performed to determine key investment opportunities.
- Financial Sustainability FrameworkDeveloped in 2004 and used to help Argentina overcome its worst modern debt crisis, a key part to a sustainable EFSG Framework.
- Global macro & financial formulationMacroeconomic events and cash flows are identified to determine the duration and general profile of risk opportunities.
- Selection of risk by countryEach country is rated and evaluated according to its relative risk based on a fundamental and monetary analysis. The rating is compared with its expected yields to determine the best positions adjusted to risk.
- Selection of industry sectorsIndustry sectors are selected on the basis of macroeconomic performance and the specifics of the local situation, including the AI industry and the financial valuation of AI companies.
Proprietary investment models.
Currencies, securities, markets, duration and curve positioning, set by our inflation, monetary and fair-value models.
- Selection of currencies & securitiesCurrencies are selected based on our inflation and monetary models, as well as our fair currency models, with an emphasis that security selection reflects fundamental views.
- Selection of global versus local marketsThe decision to invest in global or local issuances is based on a risk/reward analysis consistent with our global macro perspective.
- Determination of durationThe objectives on the duration of the portfolio are fixed on the basis of macro and monetary perspectives that determine interest rate levels and exchange rates. Duration by country and region depends on the monetary valuations and macro directional perspectives (Financial Sustainability & Inflation and Monetary Models).
- Positioning of yield curveOur monetary model identifies the optimum investment point in the yield curve of each country (Inflation and Monetary Conditions Models).
- Financial Valuation of AI: Industry & CompaniesOur AI financial valuation models assess the AI industry and AI companies, from capital formation and funding capacity to earnings and fair valuations, and feed into security and sector selection.
- EFSG FrameworkWe pay special attention to countries that conform to our EFSG Framework and are actively addressing major environmental, social and financial imbalances through sound monetary and fiscal policies, as well as structural reforms. EFSG is about sound structural reforms that move away from populist drifts.
A 25-year track record.
Well-differentiated credit, monetary and currency views, recognized for timely, out-of-the-box thinking.
- We have a strong 25-year track record of providing global macro advisory services with a unique focus on well-differentiated credit, monetary, and currency views. Our team has been recognized for its timely, well-differentiated views, and out-of-the-box thinking.
- Our Global Macro Strategy team has earned international recognition, particularly among US and European investors, as one of the leading monetary and sovereign strategy teams. We have established Strategy and Economics Teams in top global banks, including JP Morgan Chase and Barclays Capital.
- For almost two decades, Institutional Investor ranked our Global Macro Strategy team among the top five best teams in international markets.
- Our Global Macro Strategy team provides unique expertise in economic and financial crises, as well as in debt structuring and restructuring.
- BrightHill Capital owns proprietary frameworks that have been consistently used to anticipate major market moves, dislocations, and investment opportunities since December 1994, including fair valuation currency models, inflation models, monetary conditions models, investment timing models, and Financial Valuation of AI: Industry & Companies, that anticipated key market trends, including the recent US inflation surge.
Where we focus.
The United States, Europe, Japan, China and much of Latin America, in particular Mexico, Argentina and Brazil.
- Well-differentiated strategy views and currency and interest rate projections, as well as critical macro performance indicators.
- Fed funds rate calls and projections; key interest rate and funding rate projections; and key currency projections, including the MXN Peso, BRL Real, ARS$, Euro, Japanese Yen, and British Pound.
- Macro projections that include growth, inflation, fiscal, monetary, commodities, and other key balance of payments drivers.
- Political strategy views that strengthen the quality and consistency of our macro and market strategy calls.
- Weekly macro & financial strategy updates for both global and event-driven situations, event-driven conference calls, and an annual presentation on the outlook of macro strategy.
Crises we anticipated.
Our views are based on proprietary models that have consistently demonstrated superior results for over 25 years.
Fair Currency Valuation
Gauges currency devaluations (over 20% moves). The model has proved especially successful with the Mexican Peso, Brazilian Real, Argentine Peso, and the Euro.
Inflation & Monetary Conditions
Determine the degree to which monetary conditions are tight or loose, underpin relative moves throughout the business cycle, gauge the probability of US Fed Funds rate movements and reference-rate policy changes, and captured the recent surge in inflation.
Financial Sustainability
Sets the level and structure of debt that ensures a stable or declining debt-to-GDP ratio. Successfully introduced in the debt restructurings of Argentina in 2005 and Greece in 2012. Now we apply its foundations to AI financial sustainability.
Financial Valuation of AI: Industry & Companies
Financial valuation of the AI industry and of AI companies, applying our valuation and financial-sustainability frameworks.
Important information
The information provided herein (the “Presentation”) has been prepared by individual sales, marketing and/or structuring personnel of BrightHill Capital, LLC and its affiliates and tied agents (collectively “Firm”) and does not constitute research or investment advice.
The contents of this Presentation are not intended as an introduction to any potential transaction. This Presentation is not intended to be comprehensive or definitive and is qualified by reference to the review and evaluation that you make as you deem necessary or appropriate. Without limiting the generality of the foregoing, this Presentation does not purport to describe all of the risks associated with any transaction.
The information contained herein should not be construed as investment or other advice. It is presented for information purposes only and is not intended to be a specific offer by any legal entity to sell or provide, or a specific invitation for a consumer to apply for, any particular financial product or service that may be available. Nothing in this Presentation is prepared in relation to your particular circumstances, and before making any investment or taking any action with respect to an existing investment you should consult your own financial, legal, accounting, tax and other advisors as appropriate.
The information and opinions presented in this Presentation have been obtained and derived from sources believed by our Firm to be accurate, but our Firm cannot and does not make any representation or warranty with respect to it or its accuracy, completeness, sufficiency, appropriateness for your purposes or timeliness. Our Firm disclaims, to the extent permitted by applicable law or regulation, all liability arising from or the use you or your advisers make of the contents of this Presentation.
In considering investment performance information contained in this Presentation, you should bear in mind that past or projected performance is not necessarily indicative of future results and there can be no assurance that comparable results or that any projected returns will be met. If this Presentation contains “forward-looking” information, this information is based upon certain assumptions about future events or conditions and is intended only to illustrate hypothetical results under those assumptions (not all of which are specified herein). Actual events or conditions may differ from those assumed herein. In addition, not all relevant events or conditions may have been considered in developing such assumptions. Accordingly, actual results will vary and the variations may be material. You should understand such assumptions and evaluate whether they are appropriate for your purposes.
The Presentation is not intended to constitute a solicitation or offer to sell or to purchase any securities. Unless otherwise stated herein, any securities described herein have not been and will not be registered under the U.S. Securities Act of 1933, and may not be offered or sold within the United States or to, or for the account or benefit of, any U.S. person, except pursuant to an exemption from or in a transaction not subject to the Securities Act and applicable U.S. state securities laws.
This Presentation does not constitute an offer or commitment of any kind with regard to any potential transaction.
This Presentation and all information and opinions in it are the property of BrightHill Capital, LLC. You may not use any portion of this Presentation except for your personal use, and you may not otherwise distribute any portion of this Presentation to a third party without the written authorization of our Firm.